On March 28, the State Council executive meeting decided to deepen the reform of value-added tax. The meeting decided that from May 1, 2018, the VAT rate of manufacturing and other industries will be reduced from 17% to 16%, which will be transportation, construction, and foundation. The value-added tax rate for goods such as telecommunications services and agricultural products has dropped from 11% to 10%. It is estimated that the annual tax reduction will be 240 billion yuan.

At the same time, the meeting decided to unify the VAT small-scale taxpayer standard. The annual sales standard for small-scale taxpayers of industrial enterprises and commercial enterprises will be raised from 500,000 yuan and 800,000 yuan to 5 million yuan, and enterprises registered as general taxpayers will be allowed to register as small-scale taxpayers within a certain period of time. To allow more companies to enjoy the benefits of taxing at lower rates.

For enterprises and grid enterprises that meet the requirements of advanced manufacturing, R&D and other modern service industries such as equipment manufacturing, the input tax that has not been deducted within a certain period of time will be refunded once. The implementation of the above three measures will reduce the tax burden of market entities by more than 400 billion yuan throughout the year, and domestic and foreign-funded enterprises will benefit equally.

First, the overall impact of tax reduction on the manufacturing industry?

Economist Li Xunlei said that the manufacturing tax reduction is in line with expectations. The government work report of 2018 has clearly stated that "the reform and improvement of value-added tax, the adjustment of the tax rate in the third and second-grade directions, focusing on reducing the tax rate of manufacturing, transportation and other industries", this round of tax reduction has long been on the string, and is expected to open the follow-up Tax curtain.

1. The manufacturing tax reduction exceeds 100 billion.

According to quantitative calculations, the impact of the increase in taxable income caused by the decline in value-added tax is eliminated. In the first three quarters, the manufacturing industry is expected to reduce tax by 78.3 billion yuan, equivalent to about 104.4 billion yuan for the whole year, of which the upstream tax reduction is about 30.91 billion yuan. 42.03 billion yuan, downstream tax reduction of about 31.47 billion yuan, the automobile manufacturing industry, computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry actually reduced the most taxes, reaching 16.93 billion yuan, 11.17 billion yuan.

2. The upstream profit elasticity is the most obvious.

According to estimates, the tax cut is expected to boost the total manufacturing profit by 11.2%. Affected by the profit base, the upper, middle and lower reaches rose by 15.7%, 11.2% and 8.8% respectively. The profits of the three industries of non-ferrous smelting, chemical fiber and railway vessels rose the most, reaching 28.9%, 18.5% and 17.5%.

3. What is the impact of subsequent tax reductions?

If the VAT rate subsequently drops to 13%, it is expected to boost the total net profit of manufacturing enterprises by 44.8%, of which the upper, middle and lower reaches will rise by 62.8%, 44.9% and 35.1% respectively. The profits of the three industries of nonferrous smelting, chemical fiber and railway ship The rate of increase was 115.6%, 74.0%, and 70.1%.

From the time when the VAT reform was introduced, the tax cuts were just right, because the United States provoked trade disputes, and when everyone was not optimistic about the export situation this year, they used tax cuts to stimulate domestic demand and change expectations. Achieve a steady growth in investment growth.

Third, the impact of tax reduction on the textile industry

First, the adjustment of the manufacturing VAT rate will directly affect the cotton yarn import cost.

Secondly, for enterprises that purchase cotton for spinning production, what is different from the previous round of VAT adjustment is that this tax rate adjustment involves both ends of raw materials and finished products, and affects the input tax and output tax of textile enterprises. For agricultural products deep processing enterprises (spinning mills), if the value-added tax rate of agricultural products it purchases is reduced from 11% to 10%, theoretically means that the input deduction will be reduced; at the same time, the reduction of the manufacturing tax rate will also lead to cotton yarn. The sales tax generated by sales was also reduced by 1%. According to the characteristics of VAT as a kind of turnover tax, only the value-added part of the product is taxed. This tax rate adjustment will reduce the “VAT” tax burden of the enterprise at one point.

Due to the problem of “high levy and low deduction” in the production process from agricultural products to industrial products, this problem was solved after the “Implementation Measures for the Approved Deduction of Agricultural Products VAT Input Taxes” issued in 2012, and in the cotton textile province, For example, in Henan and Shandong, the problem of “high levy and low deduction” from cotton to yarn has been basically solved. The financial operations of enterprises in different regions are slightly different in specific operations. Therefore, the reduction of the manufacturing tax rate in this era is generally positive for the cotton textile industry, and the overall tax burden of the industry is reduced, which will help improve the overall efficiency of the industry.

According to the research results of economist Li Xunlei, the tax cut is expected to boost the total manufacturing profit by 11.2%. Affected by the profit base, the upper, middle and lower reaches rose by 15.7%, 11.2% and 8.8% respectively. Among them, the chemical fiber industry outside the upstream has the largest profit increase of 18.5%; the profit of the textile industry in the middle reaches is about 11.2%; the clothing and home textile industry in the downstream has the lowest profit, and the profit rate is about 8.8%. .